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Instruments and Systems: Monitoring, Control, and Diagnostics

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Structure and Stages of Implementation of the Methodology for Forecasting Emergency Situations at Hydraulic Structures (Tailings Dumps, Sludge Storage Facilities)
V.M. PANARIN, A.A. MASLOVA, A.N. KOVALENKO

The relevance of this research stems from the need to transition from reactive to predictive risk management at hydraulic structures. The objective of this
study is to develop a framework and implementation stages for a comprehensive methodology for predicting emergency situations based on data integration,
machine learning models, and physically based approaches. The methodology includes the stages of preparing, synthesizing, and verifying heterogeneous
data, identifying precursor states and anomalies, multi-level predictive modeling, probabilistic risk assessment and aggregation, as well as forecast synthesis,
decision generation, and adaptation.
The proposed framework and stages of the methodology provide a systematic, verifiable, and scalable tool for predicting accidents at hydraulic structures. Its
implementation improves facility safety through early threat identification and the formation of informed management decisions.
Keywords: machine learning, time series, anomaly detection, ensemble models, probabilistic modeling.


DOI: 10.25791/pribor.4.2026.1669

Pp. 56-60.

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