Instruments and Systems: Monitoring, Control, and Diagnostics Annotation << Back Formation of a Medium-Term Information Security Threat Model A.S. BELOV, M.M. DOBRYSHIN, N.YU. BORZOVA The existing information security systems are not sufficiently effective due to the considerable time spent at the design stage. The existing models of information security threats used at the design stage of the information security system do not fully take into account the changed conditions at the next stages of the life cycle. As a result, the information security system may not include the necessary security features at the commissioning stage. The article presents a scientific and methodological approach that allows, based on the use of neural network technologies, to justify a set of security tools that take into account the predicted conditions for the functioning of the information security system at the next stages of the life cycle. The presented approach makes it possible to rank computer attacks by the degree of their applicability based on the results of predicting the share of attacks from the total number. Keywords: computer attack, forecasting, information security threat model. DOI: 10.25791/pribor.7.2021.1277 Pp. 41-48.